Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

31 0x3178…19e1 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$388per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-0.0%	-9.6%	33%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	3	-0.0%	-9.6%	33%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	3	-0.0%	-9.6%	33%	0%	-9.6%
all	3	-0.0%	-9.6%	33%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-18.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-26.1%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.26 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$320

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage4d

Avg bet$388

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	99¢	$320	$320	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$460	−$1	-0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?	Jun 15	$290	$0	+0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$480	−$1	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$320	1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$460	1h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$460	25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15?	BUY No	100¢	$290	2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$479	2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$480	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.84 · official $319.84 (match) · 10 history records