Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x3178…c7dc crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+18%) realized +$109 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$134
7 days+$133
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$131
other 20% +$3
tech 2% $0
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +3.1% -6.7% 65% 65% +13.5%
≤30d 39 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 64% +11.7%
≤90d 39 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 64% +11.7%
all 39 +1.6% -8.1% 64% 64% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 64% +11.7%
10% -16.9% 46% +1.0%
15% -24.9% 36% -8.7%
20% -32.3% 26% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)39 / 47
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 81¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 69¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 29 $36 +$16 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 29 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 28 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 −$5 -34%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $59 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.42 · official $78.42 (match) · 116 history records