Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x3176…b725 politics 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 746d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$791 (+5%) realized +$764 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%32W / 72L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$375
7 days−$375
14 days−$475
30 days+$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$2,282
other 24% −$428
politics 23% +$10
economics 16% −$411
culture 3% −$501
crypto 3% −$328
world 2% −$311
finance 2% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 +197.6% +169.2% 33% 33% +30.4%
≤90d 9 +197.6% +169.2% 33% 33% +30.4%
all 104 -10.0% -18.6% 31% 30% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 30% -7.4%
10% -26.4% 30% -16.2%
15% -33.5% 27% -24.3%
20% -40.0% 22% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$222 vs −$94 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

746d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$764
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses32 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage746d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+77%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $60 $49 −$11 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $208 −$200 -96%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $579 −$70 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $53 +$12 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1,208 +$1,239 +102%
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Djokovic May 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $143 −$140 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $108 +$297 +276%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 22 $409 −$409 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Oct 29 $60 +$35 +59%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 26 $501 −$501 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Medicare" or "Medicaid" during remarks in NC on Sep Sep 30 $25 +$24 +96%
Will JD Vance say "Political violence" during remarks in NC on Septemb Sep 30 $34 +$16 +49%
Will JD Vance say "Autism" during remarks in NC on September 24? Sep 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference? Sep 24 $32 +$68 +212%
Will JD Vance say "Trump" or "President" 20+ times during remarks in N Sep 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025? Sep 24 $20 −$18 -92%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? Sep 24 $88 −$76 -86%
US recession in 2025? Sep 24 $106 −$94 -89%
Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference? Jul 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference? Jul 30 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Wimbledon: Fearnley vs. Fonseca Jul 06 $26 +$14 +54%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 30 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 30 $66 −$66 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 30 $402 −$402 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 4? Jun 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 30? Jun 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 24 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings Apr 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call? Apr 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call? Apr 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call? Apr 23 $112 +$88 +79%
Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call Apr 23 $156 +$44 +28%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Apr 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Apr 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? Apr 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during December FO Apr 22 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Con Apr 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Trump blowout victory? Apr 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Apr 22 $340 −$340 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Apr 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will a Republican win New York Presidential Election? Apr 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $892 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 6¢ $72 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 56¢ $507 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Andrey Rublev 65¢ $23 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Jakub Mensik 31¢ $28 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 43¢ $41 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 32¢ $12 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 100¢ $1,558 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 89¢ $486 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 50¢ $403 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic SELL Joao Fonseca 45¢ $402 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 37¢ $754 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 22¢ $51 27d
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Djokovic BUY Fonseca 17¢ $51 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar BUY Alex Michelsen 25¢ $41 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar BUY Alex Michelsen 30¢ $102 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Francisco Comesana 29¢ $1 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi BUY Francisco Comesana 26¢ $106 28d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 19¢ $15 94d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 26¢ $112 94d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 26¢ $5 94d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 26¢ $35 94d
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 BUY Yes 26¢ $56 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.14 · official $237.14 (match) · 447 history records