Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3173…8ea8 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$415 (+21%) realized +$446 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$84
14 days+$53
30 days+$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$384
other 30% −$56
sports 18% +$145
politics 10% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -10.2% -18.8% 24% 24% +1.6%
≤30d 30 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 30% +21.1%
≤90d 30 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 30% +21.1%
all 30 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 30% +21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 30% +21.1%
10% -21.4% 30% +9.5%
15% -29.0% 30% -1.0%
20% -35.9% 27% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$20 · ×5.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$514
Realized+$446
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage16d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $145 $143 −$2 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $150 $141 −$9 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$41 +133%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $36 +$73 +203%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $15 −$13 -81%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 −$13 -62%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$68 +136%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $52 −$9 -18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $52 −$6 -11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$85 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$100 +646%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $21 −$8 -38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $26 +$27 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +157%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$41 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -44%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $505 +$429 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $148 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $53 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $36 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $3 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France $8 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 21¢ $21 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $118 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 5d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $43 5d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $46 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 6d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco $13 6d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco $10 6d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $513.81 · official $512.70 (match) · 82 history records