Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3170…2517 crypto 1527 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-2%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate14%220W / 1309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$24
14 days−$101
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 685 -2.1% -11.5% 10% 3% -10.2%
≤30d 1529 -2.3% -11.6% 14% 2% -10.3%
≤90d 1529 -2.3% -11.6% 14% 2% -10.3%
all 1529 -2.3% -11.6% 14% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 2% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 1% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses220 / 1309
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1529 / 1527
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1529 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records