Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3170…3bb7 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate69%93W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$14
other 30% −$19
tech 11% −$3
world 8% +$1
crypto 3% −$6
culture 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -32.5% -38.9% 48% 23% -24.8%
≤30d 67 -31.4% -37.9% 49% 22% -24.2%
≤90d 90 -26.4% -33.4% 58% 21% -19.5%
all 134 -12.1% -20.4% 69% 30% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 30% -12.4%
10% -28.0% 16% -20.8%
15% -35.0% 12% -28.4%
20% -41.4% 6% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses93 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)134 / 149
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) France 98¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$14 +681%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Human moon landing in 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Human moon landing in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 14h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.91 · official $27.91 (match) · 277 history records