Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x316e…c796 crypto 336 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,283 (+4%) realized +$1,283 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate79%265W / 71L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$426
7 days+$426
14 days+$251
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$455
other 22% −$415
politics 8% −$36
sports 5% +$723
world 1% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +12.0% +1.4% 60% 60% +21.2%
≤30d 29 -51.8% -56.4% 24% 21% -5.9%
≤90d 336 +2.9% -6.9% 79% 45% -7.7%
all 336 +2.9% -6.9% 79% 45% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 45% -7.7%
10% -15.8% 20% -16.5%
15% -23.9% 10% -24.6%
20% -31.4% 5% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$34 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses265 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage80d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $223 +$227 +102%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $347 −$124 -36%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $249 +$98 +40%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $426 +$232 +55%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $180 +$289 +161%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $474 −$358 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $96 −$95 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $310 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $155 −$22 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $75 −$27 -36%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $12 +$9 +73%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $58 −$10 -18%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $79 −$25 -31%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $98 −$14 -14%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $140 −$27 -19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $227 +$6 +3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $451 −$33 -7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $703 −$65 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $694 +$5 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $533 +$153 +29%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $833 −$43 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,315 −$52 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,349 +$65 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 04 $80 −$16 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 04 $214 −$114 -53%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $2,405 −$36 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 03 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 03 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 30 $100 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 30 $176 +$39 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 30 $124 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 30 $227 +$34 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 86¢ $169 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 86¢ $282 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $223 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 41¢ $223 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $347 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $348 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $249 8h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 36h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $426 36h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $60 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $258 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $119 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $353 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 79¢ $96 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $95 13d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 13d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 14d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 20¢ $21 14d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 14d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $48 31d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $55 31d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $67 31d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $113 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 888 history records