Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
31 0x316b…5d97 crypto 1427 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$513 (-0%) realized −$587 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1412W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day93.7pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$402
other 8% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 1430 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 1430 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.9%
all 1430 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$104 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$572
Realized−$587
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1412 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1430 / 1427
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$94
Trades / day93.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $462 $463 +$1 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 0¢ 94¢ $0 $76 +$76 (+0%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 99¢ 92¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 9m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $462 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $37 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $36 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 30m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $80 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $60 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $572.03 · official $490.65 · 3500 history records