Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3169…593a
crypto · 41 markets active 2h ago
6.5score
+$43 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses31 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage25d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$50
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 24 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.1% +1.4% 88% 46% +7.0%
≤30d 41 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 46% +3.4%
≤90d 41 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 46% +3.4%
all 41 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 46% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 46% +3.4%
10% -18.6% 39% -6.5%
15% -26.5% 22% -15.5%
20% -33.7% 15% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records