Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3166…62a2 crypto 686 markets active 1d ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,246 (-2%) realized −$1,246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%378W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$2,366
other 1% +$413
sports 1% −$163
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.3% -13.4% 62% 59% -11.9%
≤30d 260 +4.9% -5.1% 58% 53% -10.4%
≤90d 687 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 51% -12.7%
all 687 -4.4% -13.5% 55% 51% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 51% -12.7%
10% -21.8% 42% -21.1%
15% -29.3% 31% -28.7%
20% -36.3% 22% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$49 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses378 / 309
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)687 / 686
History coverage80d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 687 Trades
no open positions (142 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$11 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$20 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $102 −$68 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $101 −$31 -30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$21 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$45 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 02 $13 −$6 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 31 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 31 $21 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $41 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $20 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 31 $13 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 31 $20 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $52 −$24 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $41 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $49 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $71 −$31 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 31 $21 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 31 $55 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 31 $41 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $23 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $53 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $47 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $30 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $54 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $28 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2068 history records