Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3162…d21c sports 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$828 (-6%) realized −$871 · open +$43
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%102W / 106L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$473
crypto 18% −$87
other 13% −$13
politics 7% −$8
weather 2% −$69
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 14 -20.5% -28.0% 50% 7% -17.3%
≤90d 46 -34.3% -40.5% 39% 17% -14.7%
all 208 -16.2% -24.2% 49% 39% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 39% -13.9%
10% -31.4% 33% -22.2%
15% -38.1% 28% -29.7%
20% -44.1% 25% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized−$871
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses102 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions7
Markets (closed)208 / 215
History coverage231d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $169 $202 +$33 (+19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $47 +$4 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $37 +$8 (+27%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $20 +$5 (+31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $176 −$5 -3%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $32 −$1 -3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 30 $36 −$36 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $234 +$2 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $149 −$15 -10%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $1,007 −$416 -41%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $580 +$29 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $569 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $486 +$90 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $489 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 19 $499 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $440 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $21 +$20 +97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $361 +$68 +19%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $352 +$15 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $370 −$3 -1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $359 +$13 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $669 −$431 -64%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $142 +$58 +41%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $34 −$1 -4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 11? May 10 $15 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 11? May 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? May 10 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $506 +$54 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10? May 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 10? May 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 10? May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 10? May 09 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 10? May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10? May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 10? May 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $112 +$52 +46%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $500 +$66 +13%
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 04 $240 −$12 -5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $591 +$19 +3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 01 $356 −$27 -8%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 23 $702 −$28 -4%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Mar 05 $81 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 26 $78 +$3 +3%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 21 $74 +$5 +6%
North Korea missile launch by February 14? Feb 18 $66 +$7 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $171 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $171 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $176 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 6d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 48¢ $36 17d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $236 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 99¢ $234 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $133 19d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $149 22d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 22d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 22d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Mumbai Indians 70¢ $419 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 30¢ $101 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 84¢ $298 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 84¢ $562 23d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 84¢ $26 23d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 100¢ $609 25d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 95¢ $580 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $569 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 25d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings SELL Gujarat Titans 96¢ $394 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.57 · official $347.07 (match) · 468 history records