Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3162…d515 sports 815 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,328 (+4%) realized +$1,332 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%465W / 468L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day88.4pace
Fees−$396est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$652
7 days−$1,083
14 days−$5,778
30 days−$930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$290
other 10% +$316
world 3% +$384
politics 1% +$60
crypto 0% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -41.2% -46.8% 31% 28% -21.4%
≤30d 892 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 46% -12.0%
≤90d 933 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 47% -11.1%
all 933 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 44% -19.6%
15% -31.8% 40% -27.4%
20% -38.5% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$1,332
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses465 / 468
Est. fees paid−$396
Open positions12
Markets (closed)933 / 815
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day88.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $56 $66 +$11 (+19%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $56 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+7%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 79¢ 87¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-97%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%? Yes 42¢ 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%? No 81¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? Yes 36¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Amaru Gaming 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 279 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: Pitstop crew (-1.5) vs NeverPlay (+1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Devin Booker: Points O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 +282%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Play Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - ACL X ESL Challenger Chin Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects (BO3) - 1win Essence Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $4 −$5 -140%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Division One - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 26¢ $6 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $8 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ $8 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $7 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $11 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $7 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $7 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $11 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $22 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 71¢ $6 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $8 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $6 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $7 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $5 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $6 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $15 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $3 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $8 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $6 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $5 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $7 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $5 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $6 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $6 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $5 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $5 14h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $5 14h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 57¢ $0 16h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 57¢ $21 16h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 68¢ $35 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.82 · official $209.79 (match) · 3500 history records