Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3161…a1c6 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% $0
other 31% +$3
politics 13% +$1
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 +1.0% -8.7% 31% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +1.0% -8.7% 31% 8% -9.5%
all 51 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -9.2%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage425d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $3 $0 +11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $37 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -36%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 27 $14 +$2 +17%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on Ma May 11 $19 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $19 $0 +2%
ChatGPT #1 app May 9? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Publisher win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 07 $18 $0 +3%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $18 $0 -0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $15 +$1 +5%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days? Apr 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 24 $18 $0 -1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? Apr 24 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $6 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $33 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $6 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $41 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $41 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $18 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records