Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
31 0x315f…46fc other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$484 (+15%) realized +$484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%21W / 22L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$430
sports 35% +$713
crypto 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +29.6% +17.3% 49% 47% +25.9%
≤30d 43 +29.6% +17.3% 49% 47% +25.9%
≤90d 43 +29.6% +17.3% 49% 47% +25.9%
all 43 +29.6% +17.3% 49% 47% +25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 47% +25.9%
10% +6.0% 47% +13.8%
15% -4.2% 42% +2.8%
20% -13.6% 28% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$23 · ×3.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses21 / 22
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage5d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $200 +$260 +130%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $106 +$40 +38%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $227 +$401 +177%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$45 -64%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$33 -65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $35 −$18 -51%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $81 −$41 -50%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $292 −$119 -41%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 +$79 +31%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$315 +614%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $242 +$109 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$30 -48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$63 -62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $139 +$61 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$62 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $76 +$66 +87%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 −$36 -88%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $121 +$35 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$46 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$20 -66%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$11 -44%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +103%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 −$20 -58%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$11 +53%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$30 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1104%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$10 -10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$5 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$15 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $388 21m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $67 42m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 56m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $72 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $78 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $75 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $159 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $74 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $26 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $153 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $17 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $40 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 23¢ $12 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $30 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 26¢ $41 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $81 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 56¢ $132 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $201 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $330 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records