Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x315f…85c6
sports · 648 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12,086 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,930 · open −$146
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$123
Realized−$11,930
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses209 / 429
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$919
Open positions10
Markets (closed)638 / 648
History coverage155d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 10 History 638 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 63¢ 62¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-67%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 46¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? No 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Legacy 24¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Mexico 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner L1ga Team 44¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? No 12¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? No 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? No 24¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? No 15¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Tundra Esports 62¢ 0¢ $624 $0 −$624 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) TheMongolz 39¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? No 21¢ 0¢ $122 $0 −$122 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner GamerLegion 49¢ 0¢ $246 $0 −$246 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? No 27¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$91 +150%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$46 +180%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $41 +$39 +97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $46 +$68 +147%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $72 +$69 +96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $65 +$47 +73%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $46 −$45 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -94%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $56 +$68 +121%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$15 +50%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 +$27 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $46 −$45 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $53 −$38 -72%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$26 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $81 +$141 +175%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $49 −$15 -31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$9 -85%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$3 +36%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $29 −$12 -43%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$9 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$18 +60%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $76 −$35 -46%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$3 -25%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$21 +105%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $36 +$36 +101%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $33 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $15 +$26 +170%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$26 +128%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $61 +$34 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% −$5,453
crypto 13% −$2,937
other 12% −$2,018
world 6% −$1,034
finance 1% −$210
economics 0% −$333
politics 0% −$45
culture 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $93 7m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 4¢ $10 16m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 33¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 19¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 3h
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 31¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $71 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $46 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 48¢ $38 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 50¢ $41 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 47¢ $30 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 35¢ $25 7h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 35¢ $25 7h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 30¢ $31 8h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 20h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $113 20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 37¢ $25 21h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $31 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $141 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $31 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -8.3%
≤30d 137 -14.8% -22.9% 39% 39% -18.6%
≤90d 550 -14.6% -22.7% 36% 35% -19.1%
all 638 -20.7% -28.3% 33% 31% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 31% -21.1%
10% -35.1% 30% -28.7%
15% -41.4% 29% -35.6%
20% -47.1% 26% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.55 · official $122.55 (match) · 2164 history records