Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
31 0x315d…2efa other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-30%) realized −$56 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$46
crypto 22% +$7
sports 17% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 33% -38.3%
≤30d 6 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 33% -38.3%
≤90d 6 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 33% -38.3%
all 6 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 33% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 33% -38.3%
10% -20.5% 17% -44.2%
15% -28.2% 17% -49.6%
20% -35.2% 17% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4 +$8 +226%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 −$44 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $32 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $4 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 94¢ $22 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $67 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $47 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.99 · official $31.99 (match) · 11 history records