Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x315d…1b39
sports · 73 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)67 / 73
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 6 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? No 90¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 16? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Quentin Halys 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will CA Grau win on 2026-05-29? No 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-29? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua end in a draw? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 1.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? Jun 14 $40 −$2 -6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +197%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Jun 14 $23 −$5 -22%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pau win? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Johnson vs. Trouve: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Horvit vs. Ghirardato: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Mia Horvit vs. Emma Ottavia Ghirardato: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Rivet vs. Tabacco: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +61%
Mazdrashki vs. Gima: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Sergi Perez Contri vs. Yanis Ghazouani Durand: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Contri vs. Durand: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
D'agostino vs. Giraldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $43 +$6 +14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Set 1 Winner: Velikova vs Ivanovic Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Filip (+1.5) Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$5 +19%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +10%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 1.5 May 29 $2 $0 +31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense end in a draw? May 29 $1 $0 -22%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 5.5 May 29 $5 $0 -5%
CD Universidad de Concepción vs. CD Unión La Calera: O/U 2.5 May 29 $2 $0 -2%
Will Malmo FF win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $4 $0 -5%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 3.5 May 29 $1 +$1 +77%
Will CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua end in a draw? May 29 $6 −$2 -34%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 2.5 May 29 $7 +$1 +13%
CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 1.5 May 29 $7 −$2 -22%
Will CA Grau win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $13 −$1 -5%
Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) May 29 $4 $0 -3%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 29 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$7
weather 27% −$28
crypto 14% +$5
other 8% −$2
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $4 9m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11m
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 31m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $0 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 4h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 6h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 7h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 7h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 7h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $1 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -6.0% -14.9% 75% 19% -11.9%
≤30d 67 -12.0% -20.3% 49% 15% -13.7%
≤90d 67 -12.0% -20.3% 49% 15% -13.7%
all 67 -12.0% -20.3% 49% 15% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 15% -13.7%
10% -28.0% 9% -22.0%
15% -34.9% 6% -29.5%
20% -41.3% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.20 · official $33.20 (match) · 327 history records