Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x315c…53d7 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 16% −$4
sports 15% +$12
politics 9% −$3
crypto 7% +$1
weather 5% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.0%
all 27 -7.4% -16.2% 52% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 4% -8.6%
10% -24.2% 4% -17.3%
15% -31.5% 4% -25.3%
20% -38.2% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage488d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $22 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 21 $2 −$1 -78%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 20 $5 −$3 -63%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $19 $0 +0%
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 42-46m viewers? Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Washington vs. USC Mar 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3? Mar 05 $23 $0 +2%
Hofstra vs. Stony Brook Mar 03 $12 +$12 +100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-26? Feb 26 $11 $0 +4%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 26 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $31 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $6 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $26 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $32 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $32 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $23 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $12 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $36 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $36 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? BUY No 97¢ $1 374d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $2 398d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 98¢ $2 426d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1 440d
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? SELL Yes $0 458d
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? SELL Yes $0 458d
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? SELL Yes $0 459d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.08 · official $31.08 (match) · 88 history records