trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 14% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 14% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 27 | -7.4% | -16.2% | 52% | 4% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.2% | 4% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -24.2% | 4% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -31.5% | 4% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -38.2% | 4% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $31 | $31 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 03 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 30 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 29 | $22 | −$1 | -5% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? | Mar 21 | $2 | −$1 | -78% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? | Mar 20 | $5 | −$3 | -63% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross between 9-11m on opening weekend? | Mar 18 | $3 | −$2 | -67% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? | Mar 17 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 16 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? | Mar 16 | $18 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 12 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Mar 11 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? | Mar 11 | $18 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 42-46m viewers? | Mar 05 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Washington vs. USC | Mar 05 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3? | Mar 05 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Hofstra vs. Stony Brook | Mar 03 | $12 | +$12 | +100% |
| Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-26? | Feb 26 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 26 | $10 | $0 | -5% |