Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x315c…ba47 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 359d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$0 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$32
sports 30% +$73
world 14% −$30
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +185.0% +157.9% 33% 33% +34.2%
≤30d 6 +185.0% +157.9% 33% 33% +34.2%
≤90d 6 +185.0% +157.9% 33% 33% +34.2%
all 10 +71.0% +54.7% 20% 20% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.7% 20% -3.5%
10% +39.9% 20% -12.7%
15% +26.4% 20% -21.1%
20% +14.0% 20% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$11 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions30
Markets (closed)10 / 40
History coverage359d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+238%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$69 +1352%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $2 25h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.46 · official $106.42 (match) · 45 history records