Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3157…7eae sports 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%24W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 23% −$2
other 20% −$4
crypto 11% −$1
economics 9% −$2
world 6% −$1
culture 3% −$2
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 207 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses24 / 183
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 208
History coverage168d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $27 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $140 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 01 $167 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 31 $314 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $240 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $36 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $65 $0 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $116 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $186 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 27 $33 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $177 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $34 $0 -1%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $105 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $32 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $25 7d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $23 8d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 8d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 20d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $31 34d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $31 35d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $31 81d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 81d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $35 81d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $35 81d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $37 81d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $37 81d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $31 81d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $31 81d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 81d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 82d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 82d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $27 82d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $27 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $31 82d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $31 82d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 82d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $35 82d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $33 82d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $33 83d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 90¢ $35 83d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 90¢ $36 83d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $34.84 (match) · 806 history records