Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3156…afce other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-3%) realized −$112 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$1,094
14 days−$146
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$133
sports 17% −$416
world 16% +$362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -87.1% -88.3% 10% 0% -72.0%
≤30d 20 +7.6% -2.7% 40% 20% -16.4%
≤90d 20 +7.6% -2.7% 40% 20% -16.4%
all 20 +7.6% -2.7% 40% 20% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 20% -16.4%
10% -12.0% 20% -24.4%
15% -20.5% 20% -31.7%
20% -28.3% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +102% → late -87% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$99 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$329
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage22d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 89¢ 98¢ $300 $329 +$29 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $223 −$220 -99%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF Jun 20 $41 −$40 -96%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIF Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $345 +$3 +1%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F Jun 19 $112 −$110 -98%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $509 −$366 -72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $508 +$362 +71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$449 +874%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$109 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $81 +$34 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $82 −$6 -7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $160 +$4 +3%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $80 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 02 $80 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 74¢ $101 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $20 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $20 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 59¢ $20 26h
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $223 3d
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY No $21 3d
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY No $21 3d
Will the announcers say "History" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIF BUY Yes 62¢ $102 3d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY No 50¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 11¢ $134 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $103 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $191 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $51 4d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY No 52¢ $51 4d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Australia F BUY No $10 4d
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA BUY No 12¢ $52 5d
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY No $52 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $102 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $102 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $102 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.49 · official $329.49 (match) · 52 history records