Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x3155…6845 crypto 46 markets active 1d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+4%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate80%37W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$4
14 days−$8
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.8% -12.9% 81% 42% -9.1%
≤30d 46 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 46% -7.0%
≤90d 46 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 46% -7.0%
all 46 +3.3% -6.5% 80% 46% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 46% -7.0%
10% -15.5% 24% -15.9%
15% -23.6% 17% -24.0%
20% -31.1% 11% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses37 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage28d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$20 -49%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$5 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $70 +$6 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$11 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $60 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $70 +$4 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $61 +$9 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$10 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$2 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$10 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$3 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$4 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 18 $21 +$13 +65%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 18 $20 +$3 +15%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 18 $20 +$5 +25%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 18 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 18 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 18 $5 +$11 +218%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records