Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3153…e174 crypto 737 markets active 5d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%508W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$84
14 days−$152
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -1.0% -10.4% 68% 68% -7.0%
≤30d 724 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 69% -10.9%
≤90d 737 -2.7% -11.9% 69% 69% -11.0%
all 737 -2.7% -11.9% 69% 69% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 69% -11.0%
10% -20.4% 66% -19.5%
15% -28.1% 40% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 13% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses508 / 229
Open positions0
Markets (closed)737 / 737
History coverage38d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 737 Trades
no open positions (210 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$5 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$7 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$6 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$13 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$11 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$11 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $14 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $14 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $14 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $14 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $14 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1277 history records