Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3151…03be weather 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-6%) realized −$13 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%24W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$22
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$37
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +1.9% -7.8% 25% 25% -15.3%
≤30d 84 +7.3% -2.9% 29% 27% -14.4%
≤90d 84 +7.3% -2.9% 29% 27% -14.4%
all 84 +7.3% -2.9% 29% 27% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 27% -14.4%
10% -12.2% 25% -22.6%
15% -20.7% 25% -30.0%
20% -28.5% 25% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses24 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)84 / 93
History coverage13d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$21 +495%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$16 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$18 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$17 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$12 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$12 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$13 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$22 +800%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$20 +395%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$12 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$15 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 50m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 30h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 33h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 33h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 33h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $9 33h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 33h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.46 · official $43.47 (match) · 241 history records