Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3150…e4b8 other 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$46
sports 21% −$18
politics 7% −$2
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$4
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 268 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)268 / 268
History coverage145d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 268 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $640 −$2 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $394 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $829 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $711 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $766 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $175 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $258 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $489 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $147 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $298 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $481 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 08 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $403 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $755 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $250 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $265 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $273 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $409 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $396 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 15m
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 3h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 19h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 20h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 24h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 25h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 30h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 32h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 39h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 40h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 41h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 44h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $65 45h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 46h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 47h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $66 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1489 history records