Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x314f…7348 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$94 (+5%) realized +$96 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%47W / 57L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$148
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$75
crypto 31% −$10
sports 20% +$176
world 7% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +7.3% -3.0% 44% 44% +10.8%
≤30d 57 +8.8% -1.6% 44% 40% +8.5%
≤90d 104 +0.9% -8.7% 45% 43% +0.9%
all 104 +0.9% -8.7% 45% 43% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 43% +0.9%
10% -17.4% 42% -8.7%
15% -25.4% 39% -17.5%
20% -32.7% 37% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses47 / 57
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)104 / 119
History coverage70d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 36¢ 36¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$29 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$9 -90%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$49 +242%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$14 +272%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$33 +161%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $40 −$36 -90%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 +$42 +207%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +102%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -26%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +64%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 −$18 -86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $20 −$10 -51%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 +$13 +263%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? AND Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côt BUY 1¢ $2 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 38¢ $31 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 14h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 22¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 38h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Ca BUY 2¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on BUY 15¢ $5 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $60 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 3¢ $1 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 28¢ $10 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 50¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $20 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colo BUY 18¢ $15 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $53 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $20 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $55 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.00 · official $210.00 · 264 history records