Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:43:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x314e…af4e
sports · 1231 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$6,371 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,379 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$26
Realized+$6,379
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1190 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$236
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1228 / 1231
History coverage50d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 1228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$261
7 days+$1,218
14 days+$2,924
30 days+$4,090
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Maxx Crosby be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? No 92¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$1 (+8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $19 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $179 −$80 -45%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $450 −$189 -42%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Toss M Jun 12 $70 +$1 +2%
Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots Jun 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots Jun 11 $14 +$3 +25%
Alex Bregman: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Hunter Goodman: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Will Jalen Hurts be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Jun 11 $47 −$28 -59%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Jun 11 $39 +$3 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Complete Jun 11 $144 +$1 +1%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Nicolas Garcia Longo vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Cambodia vs Indonesia - Completed match? Jun 11 $405 +$5 +1%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Cambodia vs Indonesia Jun 11 $125 +$20 +16%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 11 $105 −$7 -7%
Pakistan Super League: Karachi Kings vs Hyderabad Kingsmen - Most Sixe Jun 10 $79 +$2 +2%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 10 $328 +$3 +1%
Will Starmer say "Urgent" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $22 $0 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Takahashi vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 10 $111 +$8 +7%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $200 +$130 +65%
T20 Blast, Women: Lancashire Thunder vs Hampshire - Toss Match Double Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire Jun 09 $734 +$27 +4%
T20 Blast, Women: Durham vs Yorkshire - Completed match? Jun 09 $97 +$1 +1%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Comple Jun 09 $163 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $120 −$12 -10%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bahrain vs. Syria: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $731 +$20 +3%
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $124 +$15 +12%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $103 −$21 -21%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $278 +$15 +6%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $59 +$20 +34%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $4,617 +$1,181 +26%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1,166 +$53 +4%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Middlesex vs Derbyshire Falcons - Who wins Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Middlesex vs Derbyshire Falcons - Complete Jun 08 $102 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Glamorgan vs Kent - Completed match? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Glamorgan vs Kent - Who wins the toss? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Glamorgan vs Kent Jun 08 $84 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Leicestershire Foxes vs Northamptonshire S Jun 08 $102 +$1 +1%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Leicestershire Foxes vs Northamptonshire S Jun 08 $102 +$1 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $25 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Yorkshire - Completed match? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $1,508 +$21 +1%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan - Completed match? Jun 07 $31 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire - Completed match? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% +$6,425
other 4% +$129
world 0% −$203
politics 0% +$20
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 53m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 3h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -2.8% -12.1% 84% 14% -2.9%
≤30d 553 +3.9% -6.0% 95% 7% -5.6%
≤90d 1228 +5.0% -5.0% 97% 4% -6.6%
all 1228 +5.0% -5.0% 97% 4% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 4% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 4% -15.5%
15% -22.4% 3% -23.7%
20% -30.0% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.26 · official $26.26 (match) · 3500 history records