Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
31 0x314b…f748 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$5
world 45% −$28
sports 5% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% -25.0%
≤30d 2 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% -25.0%
≤90d 2 +11.6% +1.0% 50% 50% -25.0%
all 14 +21.2% +9.6% 57% 43% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 43% -9.4%
10% -0.9% 36% -18.1%
15% -10.4% 21% -26.0%
20% -19.2% 21% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage107d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $23 +$20 +87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$32 -64%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 22 $66 +$21 +32%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $44 +$2 +5%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 17 $37 +$9 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $1 +$6 +487%
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? Mar 16 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20? Mar 15 $20 +$20 +102%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? Mar 14 $48 +$8 +17%
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? Mar 10 $50 −$2 -3%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 10 $99 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $18 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 4h
Iran leadership change by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $87 91d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 24¢ $15 92d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 24¢ $6 92d
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $4 92d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 85¢ $24 93d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 27¢ $20 95d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 79¢ $22 95d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 77¢ $46 96d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 96d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 96d
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 97d
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 97d
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 98d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 62¢ $37 99d
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20? BUY No 50¢ $20 99d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? SELL No 96¢ $56 99d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? BUY No 82¢ $48 103d
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $48 103d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 78¢ $44 103d
Iran leadership change by March 31? BUY No 66¢ $66 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.76 · official $68.76 (match) · 35 history records