Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
31 0x314a…237a crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate98%49W / 1L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$14
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.6% -8.1% 97% 11% -8.1%
≤30d 50 +2.3% -7.4% 98% 10% -8.0%
≤90d 50 +2.3% -7.4% 98% 10% -8.0%
all 50 +2.3% -7.4% 98% 10% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 10% -8.0%
10% -16.3% 2% -16.8%
15% -24.4% 2% -24.9%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses49 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $82 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records