Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x314a…dea4
crypto · 145 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$114 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$114 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses72 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage50d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 0 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$78
14 days−$84
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$27 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 25 $5 +$8 +154%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 05 $5 +$5 +89%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 04 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 03 $27 −$21 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 03 $14 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 03 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 03 $11 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 03 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $5 +$6 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 03 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 03 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 03 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 03 $9 +$36 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 03 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 03 $8 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 02 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 01 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 01 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 01 $17 +$10 +58%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 01 $10 +$10 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$123
other 3% +$1
sports 3% +$11
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -45.3% -50.5% 25% 25% -64.6%
≤30d 16 -31.9% -38.4% 31% 31% -62.7%
≤90d 145 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -15.5%
all 145 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% -15.5%
10% -20.2% 42% -23.6%
15% -27.9% 36% -31.0%
20% -35.0% 30% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 494 history records