Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
31 0x3149…2680 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$372 (+21%) realized +$385 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$419
7 days+$526
14 days+$555
30 days+$555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$537
sports 15% +$33
crypto 8% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +15.1% +4.1% 63% 60% +31.9%
≤30d 31 +16.5% +5.4% 65% 61% +32.3%
≤90d 31 +16.5% +5.4% 65% 61% +32.3%
all 31 +16.5% +5.4% 65% 61% +32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 61% +32.3%
10% -4.7% 55% +19.6%
15% -13.9% 48% +8.1%
20% -22.4% 42% -2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$16 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$385
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 44¢ $40 $31 −$9 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $82 +$199 +244%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$105 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $111 +$66 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$24 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$32 +52%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$4 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$52 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$13 +86%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$27 +24%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 42¢ $61 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 32¢ $92 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 29¢ $92 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $82 42h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 24¢ $92 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 3d
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 40¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $81 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $111 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.27 · official $237.27 · 72 history records