Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3147…2b50 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$263 (-22%) realized −$200 · open −$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$217
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$137
other 27% −$176
crypto 6% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.9% -20.3% 30% 30% -38.2%
≤30d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 34% -10.3%
≤90d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 34% -10.3%
all 38 -2.5% -11.8% 34% 34% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 34% -10.3%
10% -20.2% 34% -18.9%
15% -27.9% 34% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 34% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 48
History coverage9d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Miami Heretics 53¢ 26¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-51%)
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Playoffs Vancouver Surge 55¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs Rune Eaters 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -79%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 26 $20 +$28 +137%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $57 −$56 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $20 +$37 +180%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $65 −$64 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ Jun 25 $30 +$35 +116%
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $9 +$27 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +79%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $19 −$4 -19%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $18 −$18 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $19 −$2 -8%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $19 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 $0 -2%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$34 +167%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $20 +$40 +197%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$37 +152%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $25 +$28 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners AND Wi Jun 18 $99 +$146 +147%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Jun 17 $25 +$75 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of BUY Miami Heretics 53¢ $29 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Call of Duty: Boston Breach vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Vancouver Surge 55¢ $28 1h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu SELL Toronto KOI 99¢ $48 1h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu BUY Toronto KOI 41¢ $20 2h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY Paris Gentle Mates 46¢ $57 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $57 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 52¢ $20 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 45¢ $11 7h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 44¢ $10 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $65 24h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/ BUY 46¢ $30 44h
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Evictix 21¢ $6 44h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $36 44h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $9 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY 22¢ $26 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 42¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corner BUY 24¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 BUY 28¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.34 · official $12.14 · 77 history records