Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
31 0x3145…d692 crypto 980 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%432W / 547L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$75
14 days−$58
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$133
crypto 38% −$32
other 14% −$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -31.1% -37.7% 24% 22% -24.2%
≤30d 143 -32.3% -38.8% 28% 26% -16.4%
≤90d 979 -10.0% -18.5% 44% 36% -10.8%
all 979 -10.0% -18.5% 44% 36% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 36% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 28% -19.3%
15% -33.4% 22% -27.1%
20% -40.0% 16% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses432 / 547
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)979 / 980
History coverage88d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 979 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$30 +98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -18%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$19 +909%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$6 +16%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -54%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -92%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $40 −$15 -37%
Nigeria leading at halftime? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Bonzi Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 10 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -39%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 09 $10 −$8 -83%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 09 $30 +$14 +48%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $10 +$6 +57%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -51%
Northern Ireland leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -91%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 07 $30 +$15 +49%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $75 −$2 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $54 −$1 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2 +$5 +258%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $7 −$3 -42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7 −$4 -58%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $9 −$6 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 12m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $60 28m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 5¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $3 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 12h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 76¢ $50 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 29h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 32h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 32h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $45 33h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.64 (match) · 2806 history records