Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3144…2332 politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% $0
sports 27% $0
other 13% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage106d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $92 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $93 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $93 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 1h
Will Heung-Min Son be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 15h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $91 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $92 14d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $92 19d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $92 19d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $92 27d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $92 27d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $92 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $3 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 29d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $92 34d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $92 35d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $93 59d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $93 59d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $93 62d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $93 63d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $93 65d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $93 66d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 71d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 71d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $93 82d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $31 82d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $62 82d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $93 90d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $8 91d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $23 91d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $62 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records