Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
31 0x3143…5c17 crypto 440 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$856 (+4%) realized +$855 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%226W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$932
7 days+$932
14 days+$932
30 days+$932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$886
other 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +26.5% +14.5% 56% 53% +30.1%
≤30d 36 +26.5% +14.5% 56% 53% +30.1%
≤90d 376 -9.3% -18.0% 47% 41% -6.3%
all 437 +0.4% -9.2% 52% 44% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 44% -5.8%
10% -17.9% 38% -14.8%
15% -25.8% 32% -23.0%
20% -33.1% 26% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$43 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$855
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses226 / 211
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)437 / 440
History coverage128d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$102 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $121 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$11 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$152 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$145 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $44 +$30 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $210 +$549 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$61 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $92 +$43 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $214 +$54 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$30 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $177 +$35 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$183 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$95 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$59 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 26 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 26 $90 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 26 $83 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 26 $96 +$50 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 26 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 26 $87 +$172 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 26 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 26 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 10 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 10 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 10 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 10 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 10 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 10 $300 −$286 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 0m
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $207 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.40 · official $36.40 (match) · 1487 history records