Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3140…b176 crypto 573 markets active 3h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10,888 (-28%) realized −$2,783 · open −$8,105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%443W / 116L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14,514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$391
14 days−$395
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$3,897
world 27% −$930
politics 13% −$1,821
crypto 12% −$261
sports 9% −$2,638
finance 2% −$461
weather 2% +$9
tech 0% −$49
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.0% -12.3% 33% 33% -21.5%
≤30d 13 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 54% -20.0%
≤90d 550 +3.6% -6.3% 80% 36% -36.0%
all 559 +3.7% -6.2% 79% 36% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 36% -19.6%
10% -15.1% 20% -27.3%
15% -23.3% 11% -34.4%
20% -30.9% 5% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$45 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$14,514
Realized−$2,783
Unrealized−$8,105
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses443 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)559 / 573
History coverage206d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5,000 $3,348 −$1,652 (-33%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $5,000 $3,179 −$1,821 (-36%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3,000 $2,253 −$747 (-25%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $5,000 $2,018 −$2,982 (-60%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1,500 $1,847 +$347 (+23%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $818 $7 −$811 (-99%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $912 +$736 +81%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 29 $2,000 −$1,109 -56%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $47 −$17 -35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $6 +$8 +125%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $126 −$125 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $161 +$42 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $62 +$40 +65%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $43 −$42 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 +$12 +24%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $40 +$12 +30%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 30 Apr 30 $22 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 26 $75 −$72 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 26 $42 −$36 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 26 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 26 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 26 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 26 $19 −$12 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 26 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 26 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 26 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $28 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 26 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 26 $103 −$15 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 26 $103 −$9 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $912 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $745 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $50 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $31 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 39¢ $19 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $17 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 54¢ $27 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $27 9d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 9d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 27¢ $14 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $47 12d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $126 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $161 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $101 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $101 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $62 14d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 50d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 61¢ $43 50d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) SELL King Green 99¢ $63 50d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY King Green 79¢ $50 50d
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) SELL Pat Sabatini 100¢ $52 50d
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Jared Gordon 75¢ $53 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,514.03 · official $14,514.03 (match) · 1553 history records