Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
31 0x313b…9ea2 politics 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$667per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$15
economics 10% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.7% -1.7% 100% 0% -1.7%
≤30d 1 +8.7% -1.7% 100% 0% -1.7%
≤90d 3 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 3 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$7 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage76d
Avg bet$667
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 90¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $276 +$24 +9%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 24 $1,737 −$13 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $38 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $45 2h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $255 57d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $112 61d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $276 61d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,612 65d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,737 68d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $548 68d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $36 74d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $616 76d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $38 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.66 · official $69.66 (match) · 86 history records