Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3139…9e2e
crypto · 91 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19,012 -116%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,034 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,300
Realized−$19,034
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses47 / 487
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)534 / 91
History coverage1d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day3414.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 534 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,034
7 days−$19,034
14 days−$19,034
30 days−$19,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 41¢ 100¢ $927 $2,249 +$1,323 (+143%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 76¢ 100¢ $1,582 $2,081 +$499 (+32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $699 $1,577 +$878 (+126%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $679 $1,034 +$355 (+52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $476 $933 +$458 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $273 $611 +$338 (+124%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 41¢ 32¢ $291 $226 −$65 (-22%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $113 $160 +$47 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 48¢ 68¢ $113 $159 +$46 (+40%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 57¢ 100¢ $44 $78 +$34 (+76%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 48¢ 74¢ $46 $71 +$25 (+54%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 62¢ 100¢ $43 $69 +$26 (+62%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 32¢ 26¢ $42 $34 −$8 (-20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 40¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+150%)
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 36¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+178%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2,333 −$2,333 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $540 −$540 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $457 −$457 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $321 −$321 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $519 −$519 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $189 −$189 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $118 −$118 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $87 −$87 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $142 −$142 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $35 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $20 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $28 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-82.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 534 -81.1% -82.9% 9% 7% -58.0%
≤30d 534 -81.1% -82.9% 9% 7% -58.0%
≤90d 534 -81.1% -82.9% 9% 7% -58.0%
all 534 -81.1% -82.9% 9% 7% -58.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3414.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.9% 7% -58.0%
10% ← realistic here -84.6% 5% -62.0%
15% -86.1% 4% -65.7%
20% -87.4% 3% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,300.25 · official $9,235.82 (match) · 3500 history records