Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
31 0x3137…d300 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 611d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$5 (+7%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$3
tech 17% −$1
world 5% $0
economics 4% +$2
politics 4% $0
crypto 3% +$2
finance 2% +$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 20 +14.7% +3.8% 75% 30% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 30% -3.1%
10% -6.1% 30% -12.4%
15% -15.2% 30% -20.9%
20% -23.5% 20% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

611d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage611d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
X Money released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
US bank failure by April 30? Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Dec 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Dec 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Dec 24 $22 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - December 12, 5AM ET Dec 20 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? Dec 20 $1 +$2 +150%
XRP Up or Down - December 7, 12PM ET Dec 11 $1 +$1 +96%
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? Dec 01 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 10 $5 +$2 +47%
Will "The Running Man" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomato Nov 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
X Money released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 13d
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
US bank failure by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 45d
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 46d
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 60d
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 76d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 77d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 166d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $0 167d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes $11 167d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $11 167d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $0 170d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $10 170d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes $10 170d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $10 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $11 172d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $0 176d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL Yes $11 176d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY Yes $11 176d
XRP Up or Down - December 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 186d
XRP Up or Down - December 7, 12PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 190d
Will the November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 195d
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 200d
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 209d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November BUY Yes 57¢ $1 214d
Will "The Running Man" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomato BUY Yes 57¢ $1 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.58 · official $17.58 (match) · 37 history records