Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
31 0x3136…be1b crypto 977 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,944 (+5%) realized +$2,944 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%517W / 459L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$432
7 days−$14
14 days−$261
30 days−$2,818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,073
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +15.9% +4.8% 58% 58% -9.9%
≤30d 376 -1.6% -10.9% 50% 50% -21.4%
≤90d 976 +4.7% -5.3% 53% 53% -6.5%
all 976 +4.7% -5.3% 53% 53% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 53% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 53% -15.5%
15% -22.6% 53% -23.6%
20% -30.2% 53% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$65 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,944
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses517 / 459
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)976 / 977
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 976 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$18 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$41 +94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $89 +$87 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$89 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$42 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$19 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $64 +$64 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$14 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $118 +$118 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$12 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $44 +$44 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $203 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $81 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 47h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $39 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records