Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3135…f6c3 sports 783 markets active 23h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,310 (-4%) realized −$4,310 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%403W / 379L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$1,627est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days−$3,620
14 days−$6,153
30 days−$5,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$6,153
other 1% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 50% -29.4%
≤30d 508 +8.4% -1.9% 52% 52% -15.6%
≤90d 782 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 51% -14.8%
all 782 +2.8% -7.0% 52% 51% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 51% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 49% -22.9%
15% -24.0% 44% -30.4%
20% -31.4% 37% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$144 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses403 / 379
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,627
Open positions0
Markets (closed)782 / 783
History coverage60d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 782 Trades
no open positions (350 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $131 +$45 +34%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $189 −$108 -57%
Sachia Vickery vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $24 −$13 -53%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $8 +$7 +93%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $349 +$185 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $225 −$220 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $985 +$1,523 +154%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Baena vs. Forti: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +124%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $376 −$371 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $613 −$600 -98%
Piratas de Quebradillas vs. Capitanes de Arecibo Jun 14 $8 +$2 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $272 +$123 +45%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$12 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $75 +$56 +75%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $7 +$2 +27%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $130 +$31 +24%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $105 −$104 -98%
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Tararudee (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +109%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $108 +$27 +25%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$4 +238%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 13 $48 −$48 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $235 +$370 +157%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $108 −$105 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $551 +$264 +48%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $366 −$358 -98%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $277 −$273 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $124 +$181 +146%
David Jorda Sanchis vs. Tristan Boyer: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $350 −$344 -98%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $555 +$658 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $606 +$297 +49%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5) Jun 13 $45 +$20 +44%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $662 −$251 -38%
Set Handicap: Sato (-1.5) vs Nishimura (+1.5) Jun 13 $24 +$6 +23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $247 −$219 -89%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $117 +$46 +39%
Set Handicap: Bronzetti (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5) Jun 12 $13 +$20 +146%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $462 −$455 -98%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $121 −$119 -98%
Set Handicap: Jones (-1.5) vs Romano (+1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$6 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 17¢ $81 23h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 38¢ $189 23h
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 74¢ $66 23h
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 74¢ $66 23h
Sachia Vickery vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 28¢ $1 24h
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Over 24¢ $11 24h
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $24 24h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $2 26h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 22¢ $4 26h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $9 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 53¢ $54 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 43¢ $190 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 61¢ $106 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 51¢ $8 29h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 31¢ $1 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 30¢ $225 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $2,508 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $369 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 26¢ $5 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $612 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $31 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $376 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $613 2d
Piratas de Quebradillas vs. Capitanes de Arecibo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 81¢ $8 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 70¢ $106 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 67¢ $166 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $105 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1532 history records