Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3134…746a weather 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,187 (-52%) realized −$2,241 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$132
14 days−$2,160
30 days−$2,224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$2,111
world 14% +$53
other 14% −$4
weather 10% −$72
sports 7% +$69
politics 2% −$35
tech 2% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.7% -10.2% 41% 18% -22.9%
≤30d 36 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 14% -65.4%
≤90d 36 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 14% -65.4%
all 37 -12.7% -21.0% 43% 14% -65.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 14% -65.5%
10% -28.6% 14% -68.8%
15% -35.5% 14% -71.8%
20% -41.8% 14% -74.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$116 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$624
Realized−$2,241
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)37 / 48
History coverage588d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $160 $235 +$75 (+47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $182 $184 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $144 $115 −$29 (-20%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 49¢ 96¢ $20 $38 +$19 (+95%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 50¢ 95¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+90%)
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 38¢ 23¢ $24 $15 −$10 (-39%)
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Olivier Faure be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$20 -48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$86 +280%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +408%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $256 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 14 $45 −$17 -38%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $157 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $31 +$18 +59%
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el Jun 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $42 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $90 +$52 +57%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $166 +$7 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 09 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $36 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $13 −$8 -65%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 07 $12 −$6 -53%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French president Jun 06 $14 −$1 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,088 −$2,066 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $18 +$18 +97%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? Nov 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 44h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $30 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $130 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $128 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $128 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 67¢ $56 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 67¢ $3 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 67¢ $50 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 64¢ $5 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 64¢ $1 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 64¢ $26 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 64¢ $24 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 63¢ $9 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 63¢ $55 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 63¢ $44 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 63¢ $43 3d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 63¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.99 · official $624.49 (match) · 261 history records