Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

31 0x3133…fe72 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$783 (-13%) realized −$405 · open −$378

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate44%4W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$594per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$1,539now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-42.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-36.1%	-42.2%	44%	33%	-28.4%
≤30d	9	-36.1%	-42.2%	44%	33%	-28.4%
≤90d	9	-36.1%	-42.2%	44%	33%	-28.4%
all	9	-36.1%	-42.2%	44%	33%	-28.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-42.2%	33%	-28.4%
10%	-47.7%	33%	-35.2%
15%	-52.8%	22%	-41.5%
20%	-57.4%	11%	-47.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$214 vs −$338 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1,539

Realized−$405

Unrealized−$378

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses4 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage5d

Avg bet$594

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	54¢	44¢	$1,917	$1,539	−$378 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1,450	+$494	+34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$559	−$559	-100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$69	−$69	-100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$64	+$5	+7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$510	−$446	-87%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$514	−$514	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$24	+$18	+73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$707	+$338	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$986	40m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	59¢	$958	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$1,450	22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	30¢	$557	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$69	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	93¢	$64	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	9¢	$64	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$510	4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$103	4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$514	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$707	5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$24	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,539.14 · official $1,539.14 (match) · 20 history records