Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3131…8db2 crypto 2517 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,094 (-18%) realized −$1,095 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%830W / 1264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,282
7 days−$1,058
14 days−$341
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$720
other 5% +$92
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -13.8% -22.0% 25% 25% -68.3%
≤30d 1116 +20.6% +9.1% 42% 42% -15.7%
≤90d 2094 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% -17.4%
all 2094 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 40% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 39% -25.3%
15% -22.1% 39% -32.5%
20% -29.7% 39% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,095
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses830 / 1264
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2094 / 2517
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2094 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 23¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $2.38 (match) · 3500 history records