Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
31 0x3130…f4e5 politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 26% +$1
politics 19% $0
culture 17% +$1
finance 16% $0
world 13% $0
other 5% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
all 10 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$666
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage61d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $301 $301 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $234 $234 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 20 $282 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $144 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? Jun 16 $240 $0 +0%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $664 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 04 $300 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 04 $363 $0 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $199 $0 +0%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between Apr 28 $662 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $301 1h
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Hope Scheppelman be the Republican nominee for CO-03? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $220 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $208 10d
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $144 11d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $282 14d
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $240 14d
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 100¢ $143 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $664 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $300 29d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $363 29d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 83¢ $27 39d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? SELL No 83¢ $172 39d
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? BUY No 83¢ $199 43d
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 100¢ $662 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.92 · official $665.92 (match) · 28 history records