Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
31 0x312e…19b5 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+46%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$9
other 35% −$3
crypto 13% −$3
world 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +33.9% +21.2% 41% 41% +15.3%
≤30d 17 +33.9% +21.2% 41% 41% +15.3%
≤90d 17 +33.9% +21.2% 41% 41% +15.3%
all 17 +33.9% +21.2% 41% 41% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.2% 41% +15.3%
10% ← realistic here +9.6% 41% +4.3%
15% -1.0% 41% -5.8%
20% -10.7% 41% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +116% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +246%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +339%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +339%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$2 +232%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 1¢ $1 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 16h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 18h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 6¢ $1 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 24h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 12¢ $3 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 3¢ $1 27h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.91 · official $4.91 (match) · 31 history records