trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? | Jun 06 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | May 22 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 16 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10? | May 10 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? | May 02 | $6 | +$1 | +12% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | May 01 | $6 | +$1 | +18% |
| Avalanche vs. Oilers | Apr 15 | $5 | +$4 | +85% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | Apr 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t | Apr 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 13 | $9 | +$4 | +43% |
| Penguins vs. Rangers | Mar 31 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 17? | Mar 31 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET | Mar 31 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 3? | Mar 31 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Golden Knights vs. Capitals | Mar 31 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | Mar 31 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 27? | Mar 31 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) beat quarterly earnings? | Mar 31 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Mar 27 | $7 | +$3 | +42% |
| Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L | Mar 16 | $7 | +$2 | +32% |
| Rangers vs. Devils | Mar 13 | $8 | +$5 | +64% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on March 5? | Mar 07 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -19.8% | -27.4% | 75% | 25% | -28.6% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -40.2% | -45.9% | 48% | 33% | -49.2% |
| all | 23 | -33.6% | -39.9% | 52% | 35% | -40.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -39.9% | 35% | -40.9% |
| 10% | -45.7% | 22% | -46.6% |
| 15% | -50.9% | 17% | -51.7% |
| 20% | -55.7% | 9% | -56.5% |