Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x312c…0f42 sports 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$514 (-1%) realized −$465 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%224W / 189L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$444est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$139
14 days+$634
30 days−$1,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$1,210
other 3% −$137
crypto 2% +$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 45% -11.7%
≤30d 231 -5.9% -14.9% 54% 52% -14.0%
≤90d 413 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 53% -11.9%
all 413 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 53% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 53% -11.9%
10% -21.6% 50% -20.3%
15% -29.1% 45% -28.0%
20% -36.1% 35% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$74 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$465
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses224 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$444
Open positions3
Markets (closed)413 / 416
History coverage89d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$69 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $112 +$42 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$12 -24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $102 +$116 +114%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $252 +$101 +40%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $26 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $41 +$78 +191%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $102 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $235 −$39 -17%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $503 +$122 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$80 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $706 +$75 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $468 −$216 -46%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$29 +71%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 +$50 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 +$57 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$2 -2%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $132 +$66 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $61 +$50 +82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 −$28 -28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $803 +$69 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$34 +97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $122 −$68 -56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $66 +$83 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $86 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $41 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $17 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $50 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $36 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $36 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $39 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $51 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $217 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $102 23h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo SELL Zero Tenacity 55¢ $62 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $354 25h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Zero Tenacity 44¢ $51 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $252 26h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 66¢ $101 27h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 0¢ $0 28h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $119 28h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 26¢ $26 28h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 34¢ $41 29h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL Team Nemesis 50¢ $98 30h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $102 30h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 60¢ $152 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 38¢ $2 46h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 43¢ $71 46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $41 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.41 · official $91.41 (match) · 989 history records