Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x312c…bc9c crypto 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$254 (-10%) realized −$252 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%12W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$27
14 days−$427
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$333
other 1% −$21
sports 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -40.3% -46.0% 17% 17% -33.3%
≤30d 83 -12.1% -20.5% 14% 14% -25.5%
≤90d 83 -12.1% -20.5% 14% 14% -25.5%
all 83 -12.1% -20.5% 14% 14% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 14% -25.5%
10% -28.1% 14% -32.7%
15% -35.1% 13% -39.2%
20% -41.4% 13% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$24 · ×4.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses12 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage28d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $21 +$55 +258%
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $28 −$27 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $16 −$15 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $32 +$126 +396%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 19 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 19 $77 +$76 +99%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $31 +$38 +123%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $51 +$17 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $53 +$139 +264%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $211 −$211 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 2¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 15¢ $32 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 38¢ $63 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $42 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 2¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 97¢ $153 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 1¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.14 · official $43.14 (match) · 170 history records