Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x312c…3adc crypto 275 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,696 (-7%) realized −$1,556 · open −$140
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%97W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days−$8
14 days−$1,858
30 days−$1,978
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$2,135
other 8% −$518
sports 1% +$320
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -42.3% -47.8% 26% 26% -10.1%
≤30d 254 -20.1% -27.7% 35% 35% -17.9%
≤90d 254 -20.1% -27.7% 35% 35% -17.9%
all 270 -20.0% -27.6% 36% 34% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 34% -18.1%
10% -34.6% 34% -25.9%
15% -40.9% 33% -33.1%
20% -46.7% 31% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$64 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1,556
Unrealized−$140
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses97 / 173
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)270 / 275
History coverage100d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $193 −$42 -22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $303 +$35 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $135 −$74 -54%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +32%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $140 +$54 +39%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $87 +$350 +402%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $504 −$55 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $79 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $27 +$97 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$23 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $32 +$21 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $32 +$217 +681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $53 +$102 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$77 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $52 +$118 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 0m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 0m
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 0m
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 28m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 59m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $32 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 20¢ $58 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 75¢ $150 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 66¢ $133 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 71¢ $248 25h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 71¢ $90 25h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.73 · official $87.02 · 680 history records